Fed’s favored inflation gauge accelerated in May amid energy price shock

This story about the May PCE inflation report is developing and will be updated with further details.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose in May as price pressures persist in the wake of the energy shock caused by the Iran war.

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in May and is 4.1% higher than a year ago. 

The monthly figure came in slightly cooler than the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a 0.5% rise, while the annual figure was in line with the estimate.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile measurements of food and energy prices, was up 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.4% from a year ago. Both figures were in line with expectations.

Federal Reserve policymakers are focused on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%, though they view core data as a better indicator of inflation. Compared with April’s readings, headline PCE rose from 3.8% to 4.1%, while core PCE increased from 3.3% to 3.4%.

Goods prices were up 2.3% in May from a year ago, and were up 0.4% from the prior month.

Services prices rose 2% compared with a year ago, and were up 0.5% on a monthly basis in May.